Is this the Final Chapter or a New Chapter?
 

New national survey shows state of the country at critical juncture in 2010
 

            We still do not know how this story ends. We could be at the beginning of a new, six-month chapter with voters growing more invested in the country’s current course and shifting their thinking about the issues and stakes. Or we could be locked into this current chapter as a final one full of angry citizens determined to cast their votes against Washington, the elites, Democrats and government. There is some evidence the former is possible, if the president and Democrats throw themselves behind emergent trends, though there is even more evidence for the latter ending.

Health care’s passage did not produce even a point rise in the president’s approval rating or affection for the Democratic Congress. Virtually every key tracking measure in April’s poll has remained unchanged, including the Democrats’ continued weakness on handling of the economy. Both parties are equally reviled, reflected in their lowest ratings in history, while voters want to punish those in power – for the partisan bickering, bailing out the undeserving, government spending, the deficit, and the endless gridlock over health care while people struggled to survive the jobs crisis. With independents even more conservative and Republican-leaning in this survey, the congressional battle in 2010 looks like a dead-heat at best – a 12-point swing in this poll from 2008.

But there is a lot more going on – with some evidence that the voters can get to a different place if Democrats embrace the emergent changes and push them to shift the inertia away from the current populist revolt against government.

A significant 5-point drop in the percent believing the country is heading in the wrong direction – produced entirely by the 12-point drop among Democrats – a possible precursor to Democratic voters believing they have a greater stake in the 2010 election.

Whether the country is on the wrong track is a key measure of mood and confidence in leadership and may be an advance indicator for other changes. That was true when things turned sour in April last year: Obama’s approval rating dropped two months later and the standing of Democrats in Congress three months later. Will there be lagged changes on these measures now?

Assessments of the personal economy – your own finances, job situation, health insurance, and hours and wages – moved significantly upward in April – and for the first time.

Evaluations of the macro economy grew even more: a 7-point rise in belief the economy is in recovery and 10-point rise in “warm” judgments about the economy. Independents as well as Democrats are drawing these conclusions.

The one area where Democrats are making consistent headway is on the perception that they are working for Main Street jobs rather than Wall Street bailouts – though they still have a longway to go – voters are evenly split on this issue. Democrats are only 4 points ahead on which party is ‘on your side,’ and tied on who would do a better job with ‘middle class living standards.’ Every issue has to reinforce that Democrats stand for the middle class and Republicans for the big corporations.

The regression modeling says that only two things matter for predicting the congressional vote: first, who is better on the economy and jobs, and second, who is on your side. Passing health care was important for many reasons, but most voters still viewed it as a distraction from the hard work on the economy. The changes in the economy and Wall Street debate may change that.

Democrats have yet to credibly reassure voters on spending and deficits. At the moment, voters believe cutting taxes and spending and reducing government will be better for the economy than investing to create jobs.

Without a powerful narrative for the economy, a growing number believe that Obama’s economic policies have run up a deficit while failing to ease the jobs problem rather than averting an even worse crisis. Our research shows over and over again that the president’s narrative – “it’s starting to work” – drives disaffected voters away from Democrats on the economy.

The Democrats need an economic narrative and choice with power. A separate project for Citizen Opinion shows that an economic narrative and electoral choice centered on the middle class and corporate abuse can shift enough votes to change this final chapter.

Fortunately, Republicans have not yet closed the deal. Their image is abysmally low, but more important, the percentage saying they will vote Republican for Congress (without including those who “lean” Republican) has not increased from the 2006 and 2008 elections. All the Democratic losses have shifted into the “lean Republican” or undecided – which has doubled compared to prior years.

A more detailed analysis of this these results can be found on Democracy Corp's website www.democracycorps.com.